Planning For The Likelihood of Uncertainty

A thought provoking debate sparked by a keynote talk at the TFM&A in February keeps rearing its head in discussions with clients and colleagues alike – should marketers and business owners should embrace uncertainty, rather than embark on the long and arduous pursuit of predictability? I’m unsure whether I agree with Craig Mawdsley; Head of Planning at AMV BBDO, who is pro-uncertainty, but nonetheless I feel compelled to share some of his/my (mainly his) thoughts on uncertainty as I think this is an interesting debate that needs to be addressed.

Mawdsley argues that there is a real danger that over thinking strategy can lead to missing the crest of your perfect wave – the one you’ve been waiting for. To add to your frustration, you had the knowledge and awareness to see it coming, but didn’t have the confidence to hop on without being certain of the outcome.

Here’s his philosophy: Doing beats thinking. Allocate a small but fixed amount of your time and resource to experimentation with new strategies; ideas that you wouldn’t bet your budget on but are engaging and out of the ordinary. Then listen, learn, and back success. Having the confidence to embrace uncertainty should ensure that you fail small and win big.

I enjoy the concept of allocating time for experimentation, in principle. With advancements in digital media and an increasing number of social media channels, there will always be new bits and pieces to tinker with without having to leave one’s desk.

What do you think? Is this a strategy you would recommend to a client? Or is it blue sky thinking?

I am certain of this – it is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.